Forecaster

Join the Texas Health and Human Services Commission (HHSC) and be part of a team committed to creating a positive impact in the lives of fellow Texans. At HHSC, your contributions matter, and we support you at each stage of your life and work journey. Our comprehensive benefits package includes 100% paid employee health insurance for full-time eligible employees, a defined benefit pension plan, generous time off benefits, numerous opportunities for career advancement and more. Explore more details on the Benefits of Working at HHS webpage.

Functional Title: Forecaster 
Job Title: Actuary II 
Agency: Health & Human Services Comm 
Department: Forecasting 
Posting Number: 7037 
Closing Date: 09/09/2025 
Posting Audience: Internal and External 
Occupational Category: Business and Financial Operations 
Salary Group: TEXAS-B-23 
Salary Range: $5,666.67 - $6,666.67 
Pay Frequency: Monthly
Shift: Day 
Additional Shift:  
Telework: Eligible for Telework 
Travel:  
Regular/Temporary: Regular 
Full Time/Part Time: Full time 
FLSA Exempt/Non-Exempt: Exempt 
Facility Location:  
Job Location City: AUSTIN 
Job Location Address: 4601 W GUADALUPE ST 
Other Locations:  
MOS Codes: No direct military equivalent. 
 
 
 

Brief Job Description:

The Actuary II (Forecaster) plays an important role on the Health and Human Services Forecasting Team, with assignments ranging from forecasting to providing critical support for analyses on policy and programmatic impacts to various HHS programs, including but not limited to, Medicaid, Children's Health Insurance Program (CHIP), Women's Health and Behavioral Health programs, Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) or Temporary Assistance to Needy Families (TANF).

Working with other forecasters and HHS program staff and team members, the Forecaster will perform complex and interesting statistical and research functions with moderate supervision from a Team Lead. The Forecaster is responsible for the initial run of all forecasts from their area and will verify and maintain the integrity of data used in forecasting and reporting for their area.  The Forecaster position requires moderate judgment and latitude to make recommendations on data issues and forecasts. The successful candidate will balance sound actuarial, statistical, and/or scientific judgment with logical decisions to make recommendations to the team.

Essential Job Functions (EJFs):

1. Under the direction of the manager/team lead, the Forecaster develops complex statistical models, such as time series models, using SAS or other software, including Excel, to forecast HHS programs and evaluate the performance of such models (30%).

2. The Forecaster maintains and updates complex spreadsheets on a continual basis and identifies opportunities for improvement (30%).

3. The Forecaster pulls and analyzes historical data on a monthly basis to identify and escalate anomalies and to ensure appropriateness for use in forecasting (15%).

4. The Forecaster provides reports to management, the Legislative Budget Board, and others, on a monthly or quarterly basis, on the performance of models, as well as trends seen in the data (10%).

5. Performs ad-hoc queries and runs simulations on request (10%).

6. Other duties as assigned (5%).

Knowledge, Skills and Abilities (KSAs):

Knowledge of:

• Statistical software (such as SAS or R) and/or forecasting software
• Excel, including linking multiple worksheets and use of pivot tables

Skill in:

• Data analysis and/or statistical modeling
• Communication and collaboration

Ability to: Work independently

Registrations, Licensure Requirements or Certifications:

N/A

Initial Screening Criteria:

1. Graduation from a 4-year college or university with major coursework in a relevant field, such as mathematics/statistics/economics or any degree that included major coursework in statistical/data analysis.

2. Experience with data analysis tools demonstrated via coursework or work experience.

Additional Information:

This is a hybrid telework position requiring both remote and in office days each week.

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Active Duty, Military, Reservists, Guardsmen, and Veterans:

Military occupation(s) that relate to the initial selection criteria and registration or licensure requirements for this position may include, but not limited to those listed in this posting. All active-duty military, reservists, guardsmen, and veterans are encouraged to apply if qualified to fill this position. For more information please see the Texas State Auditor’s Job Descriptions, Military Crosswalk and Military Crosswalk Guide at Texas State Auditor's Office - Job Descriptions.

ADA Accommodations:

In compliance with the Americans with Disabilities Act (ADA), HHSC and DSHS agencies will provide reasonable accommodation during the hiring and selection process for qualified individuals with a disability. If you need assistance completing the on-line application, contact the HHS Employee Service Center at 1-888-894-4747. If you are contacted for an interview and need accommodation to participate in the interview process, please notify the person scheduling the interview.

Pre-Employment Checks and Work Eligibility:

Depending on the program area and position requirements, applicants selected for hire may be required to pass background and other due diligence checks.

HHSC uses E-Verify. You must bring your I-9 documentation with you on your first day of work. Download the I-9 Form

Telework Disclaimer:

This position may be eligible for telework.  Please note, all HHS positions are subject to state and agency telework policies in addition to the discretion of the direct supervisor and business needs.